POULTRY Poultry Market Outlook - September
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Dive into our expert analysis and discover the driving forces behind the industry’s evolution.
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FARM INPUTS OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
After losing ground over the summer, commodity prices rebounded in September. The deterioration of weather conditions across the Americas, along with renewed international demand, also contributed to this recovery.
Corn
- In September, corn prices regained support in the US market ($158/t compared to $149/t in August). The main factors were warmer and drier weather in the Corn Belt, as well as a renewed demand for American grain.
- The rebound in corn prices on the Chicago market, coupled with concerning weather conditions in Brazil, pushed prices higher on the Brazilian market (+5.4% compared to August).
- In the European market, corn prices remained stable at $233.7/t, as operators await results from the upcoming harvests in the region.
- Only the Chinese market recorded a decline over the month (-$4.6/t), thanks to excellent production levels expected (292 Mt compared to 289 Mt for the 2023-2024 campaign).
Soya and Soybean meal
- As for corn, the warm weather observed in the Corn Belt in September supported soybean prices. China’s return to purchasing also provided additional support. On the Chicago market, soybean meal gained $15.2/t compared to August.
- In South America, the dry weather didn’t significantly concern the market. Soybean meal prices continued to decline (-2.5% compared to August) as planting progressed.
- In Europe and China, major importers of soybean meal, prices were more influenced by the declines seen in South America (their main supplier) than by the rise in the US market. However, these decreases remained moderate, with prices falling by $1.9/t on the Chinese market and $3.4/t on the European market, compared to August.
BROILER PRICE MARKET OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In September, chicken prices are on the rise, with market outlooks remaining positive. Strong consumption growth has driven up demand in international trade, pushing prices higher. Compared to 2023, both production and trading are expected to increase.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
In Europe, chicken prices have seen a sharp increase (+6%). Strong demand and reduced intra-trade supply, particularly from the Netherlands and Poland, have driven prices up significantly. This situation is likely to persist until the end of the year. The supply imbalance between different chicken cuts is becoming more pronounced, but this time in favor of dark meat (thighs and wings). This segment is benefiting from strong demand due to inflation and the growth of the snacking and food service demand. Imports from non-EU countries saw a significant drop in August (-26%), mainly from Ukraine (-47%) and Brazil (-10%).
Sources: EC Agridata, Banque de France, Ceva
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
Chicken prices increased slightly in September, despite higher production and relatively steady to light demand. Chicken production for 2024 has been revised upward by over 1.6%. Between July and September, the number of hatched eggs rose by 3%, marking a two-year record for chicks placed. Chicken exports remain affected by restrictions due to HPAI, with a 13% decline in August. The Chinese market has been the hardest hit, with sales down by 22%.
Sources: USDA AMS reports, Ceva
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
In September, chicken prices rose by 2.4% due to strong demand, typical for this time of year. At the same time, production reached record levels in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2024. This increase highlights the strong export demand for Brazilian chicken. In September alone, chicken exports grew by 9%, exceeding 425,000 tons, driven by higher sales to the Middle East (+20%), the EU (+53%), and Mexico (+56%).
Sources: Cepea, Ceva
Sources: Cepea, Banque de France, Ceva
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
In September, chicken prices in China fell slightly, linked to lower pork prices and weak demand. Due to this low demand, slaughterhouse activity in China remains limited. However, during the last week of September, white-feathered chicken prices increased in anticipation of the National Day, when demand is expected to rise. In the short term, supplies may be limited due to declining stock levels and reduced slaughterhouse activity. China’s chicken imports dropped significantly in September (-29%), with major declines from the U.S. (-80%), Brazil (-29%), and Thailand (-26%).
Sources: Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, Banque de France, Ceva
POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS