POULTRY Poultry Market Outlook - October
Discover the latest insights with our Poultry Market Outlook this month!
Stay ahead of the curve with up-to-date information on global poultry protein market prices.
Dive into our expert analysis and discover the driving forces behind the industry’s evolution.
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FARM INPUTS OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
Under harvest pressure, weather-related concerns, and strong trade activity, markets have moved in different directions across key production regions. Except for China, maize has generally trended upwards, while soybean meal continues its downward trend, with the Brazilian market being the notable exception.
Corn
- In October, corn prices continued their upward trend in the US market, increasing by $2 to reach $160/t. Despite record-breaking harvest progress and promising yields, export sales have been equally remarkable. Weekly exports of US corn hit record highs in October, particularly to Mexico, which supported prices.
- In Brazil, prices remain supported by suboptimal weather conditions and concerns over the potential occurrence of the La Niña climate phenomenon. Corn prices rose by $6 compared to September, averaging $204/t in October.
- In the European market, weather conditions have also played a supporting role. Harvesting activities have been slowed by excessive rainfall in the west and overly dry conditions in the Black Sea region.
- In contrast, the Chinese market moved in the opposite direction, recording a 3.7% decline compared to September. This decrease is logical given the record harvest levels in the country (296 Mt, +9% compared to the 5-year average).
Soya and Soybean meal
- On the Chicago market, soybean meal prices dropped by $4.8 compared to September. As with corn, the rapid progress of the harvest and the expected excellent production have exerted downward pressure on prices.
- In South America, market participants remain cautious about weather conditions during the planting season. These concerns have supported prices, which increased by 3.3% compared to September.
- In Europe and China, soybean meal prices mirrored the trends in the US market. Despite current concerns, production forecasts for South America remain positive. While the price decline was significant in Europe (-$14), it was more moderate in the Chinese market (-$2).
BROILER PRICE MARKET OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In October, global chicken prices continued to rise, driven by strong demand while supply struggled to keep pace. At the same time, feed costs began to climb again, driven by adverse climatic conditions and intensifying geopolitical tensions in the lead-up to the U.S. elections. This price increase has particularly impacted the European Union, which is facing challenges in meeting the rapidly growing demand.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
In Europe, chicken prices increased by 5% in October, marking another significant rise. This increase is driven by strong demand for EU-origin chicken, particularly from Poland, following the ongoing decline in production in the Netherlands and dynamic demand, especially in Western Europe. Despite this surge in demand, extra-EU imports have decreased, notably from Ukraine (due to the suspension of imports by Hungary and Poland) and from Brazil, where salmonella issues and the withdrawal of export authorizations for certain Brazilian slaughterhouses have further constrained supply.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
Chicken prices are showing a slight increase in the U.S., supported by stable demand driven by inflationary pressure on other meats. Despite a 1.9% rise in production during Q3 2024, prices remain high as stocks are projected to decline in Q4 2024. The projected average quarterly price for Q4 2024 is expected to increase by 1.6% compared to Q3. In September, U.S. exports fell by only 4%, still hindered by reduced sales to Asia (-20%) and Africa (-14%).
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
In October, chicken prices in Brazil saw a slight increase in the domestic market but remained stable in export markets, supported by the Brazilian real’s devaluation to its lowest level in three years. Both production and demand remained strong, driven by robust performance in domestic and export markets. According to Embrapa, the cost of chicken production rose by 9.6% year-on-year in October, reaching its highest level in 18 months. Brazilian exports increased by 9% in September, boosted by growing sales to the Middle East (+18%) and Africa (+32%).
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
In October 2024, chicken prices in China rose by 2.4%, driven by increased demand during the back-to-school season and National Day celebrations. However, this price increase is expected to be temporary, with a decline anticipated in November. This projected drop is attributed to an oversupply and stronger demand for other types of meat. The subdued demand could lead to a reduction in production in the coming months. On the import side, China’s chicken imports fell significantly in September, down by 28%, with notable decreases from the United States (-60%) and Brazil (-26%).
POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS