Poultry Market Outlook - May

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FARM INPUTS OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE

May was marked by a rise in commodity prices on global markets. The cause is rather unfavorable weather conditions, which are causing concern among operators about harvest prospects.

Corn

In South America, the situation has deteriorated. The crop losses in Argentina due to a disease affecting the crops have been confirmed, with 46.5 Mt expected by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange compared to 55 Mt a few weeks ago. Additionally, the flood affecting Brazil are worrying operators.
In the Corn Belt, sowing has been delayed due to bad weather conditions. However, this delay has been made up by producers, who have managed to sow up to 70% (compared with a five-year average of 71%).
Excessive rainfall also affected Europe, causing significant delays in sowing. In France, for example, only 78% of sowings were completed by the end of the month, compared with 96% at the same time last year.

Soya and Soybean meal

In Brazil, the completion of the harvest is being hampered by floods affecting the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
Sowings are progressing well in the United States, with sown areas expected to increase for the 2024/25 season, which is slowing the rise in prices.
The European market is following this upward trend, with soybean meal at $479/t in May (+$50/t compared to April).

BROILER PRICE MARKET OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE

In May, broiler price evolution remained heterogeneous: in Europe, prices increased due to lower supplies and a slight rebound in feed prices; in the USA, the balance of supply and demand stabilized prices. Poultry industry performance remains positive. HPAI remains a challenge in North America and is spreading in Australia. Global demand remains strong. A record consumption of broiler meat is expected in 2024.

May_Image1_Broiler chicken market price comparison — Global Poultry Market Price Overview – May 2024, *Sources: EC Agridata,* *USDA AMS reports, Cepea, Chinese Natl Dev & Reform Commission, Banque de France, Ceva*

BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE

The price of chicken is increasing in the EU (+1.4%) but is down by 4% compared to 2023, despite the significant drop in feed prices. Chicken production in the first quarter of 2024 has increased considerably (+6.2%), but this growth remains insufficient to meet the very high demand. EU imports decreased in March (-18%), marking the return of European production after 2 years of HPAI presence. France (+14%), Poland (+7%), and Belgium (+36%) maintained dynamic production in Q1.

May_Image2_Broiler chicken ave. market price EU without UK — EU – Broiler chicken market price overview in $ – May 2024 *Sources: EC Agridata,* *Ceva*

May_Image2_Broiler chicken ave. market price EU without UK in EUR — EU – Broiler chicken market price overview in € – May 2024 *Sources: EC Agridata, Banque* *de France, Ceva*

BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA

In May, HPAI losses surpassed 5 million birds. Despite the substantial number of outbreaks, production saw a 1.7% increase from January to April 2024. The USDA remains optimistic, maintaining a positive forecast of 1% growth for 2024. Demand continues to be light to moderate, resulting in a slight dip in chicken prices for May. Export volumes continued their decline in April (-14%), with significant drops in sales to China (-65%) and Taiwan (-64%) due to HPAI-related restrictions.

May_Image3_Wholesale Broiler chicken price USA — USA – Wholesale price overview in $ – May 2024 *Sources: USDA AMS reports, Ceva*

BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL

Broiler prices in May continued their decline, driven by decreasing domestic demand, a considerable increase in supply, and stock accumulation. Slaughterhouses remain cautious in their live purchases. With this price drop and a significant rise in soybean and corn prices, CEPEA reports a decrease in farmers’ margins in May. Despite the overall export growth of 5% in May, sales to China fell by 24%. However, there was a notable surge in sales to the Middle East (+28%) and Mexico (+129%).

May_Image4-Wholechicken_chilled wholesale price_Brazil — BRAZIL -Whole chicken (chilled) price overview in $ – May 2024 *Sources: Cepea, Ceva*

May_Image4-Wholechicken_chilled wholesale price_BR Reals — BRAZIL -Whole chicken (chilled) price overview in BR Reals-May2024 *Sources: Cepea, Banque de France, Ceva*

BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA

In May, chicken prices declined, driven by increased slaughterhouse stocks (+6%) and weak demand. In response to this trend, slaughterhouse activity levels remain low, operating at only 73% of capacity. In the coming months, farmers remain cautious about increasing production as summer and the holiday season approach, traditionally associated with low demand. In contrast, the price of yellow-feathered chicken is rising due to dynamic demand and reduced production. In May, imports fell by 36%, mainly from the USA (-70%) and Brazil (-20%).

May_Image6_Broiler Chicken cash price_China Mainland in USD — *CHINA – Broiler Price Overview in $ Sources: Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, Banque de France, Ceva*

May_Image5_Broiler Chicken cash price_China Mainland in CNY — CHINA – Broiler Price Overview in CNY – May 2024 *Sources: Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, Banque de France, Ceva*

POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS