Poultry Market Outlook - June
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FARM INPUTS OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In June, commodity prices stabilized or even declined, ending the rise recorded in May. Production estimates are now expected to change little, calming the volatility of recent weeks.
Corn
There was little change in South America for corn. There is a significant gap between local analysts’ estimates of Brazilian production and those of the USDA, with 114 Mt and 122 Mt expected, respectively. Both figures are far from the 137 Mt of the previous campaign.
In the United States, conditions are generally good across the Corn Belt, which has allowed sowing to progress well. According to the USDA, 75% of corn is in “good to excellent” condition (compared to 64% last year). Prices on the Chicago market have fallen in line with oil and wheat.
Corn prices on European markets have followed those on the Chicago market and stabilized compared to May with respectively $228/t and $xx/t.
Soya and Soybean meal
Soybean sowing is progressing well in the United States, with 78% completed by the end of the month compared to an average of 73% in recent years, according to the USDA. Prices for both soybean seeds and meal have thus declined, partially erasing the rise recorded in May.
By the end of the month, European prices had decreased in line with the drop in oil prices and those of commodities in Chicago. In June, Rotterdam soybean meal traded at $481/t.
In Brazil, production estimates have stabilized at 150 Mt. On the Brazilian market, soybean meal sold for an average of $481/t in June.
BROILER PRICE MARKET OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In June, broiler prices varied heterogeneously, as market conditions continued to improve following a quiet winter (HPAI). The price decline compared to 2023 and low inflation are stimulating demand, particularly for processed products and in the foodservice sector. Global growth is expected to reach 2% in 2024, driven by emerging markets, while slow growth is anticipated in the EU and USA.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
As summer approaches, synonymous with a decrease in demand, chicken prices remain stable and slightly increase. Despite the strong recovery in production in the first half of 2024, prices remain relatively high due to sustained demand. EU imports increased significantly in April (+28%), mainly from Ukraine and the United Kingdom. The second quarter of 2024 marks the return of EU exports to Asia and Africa after two years of decline due to inflation and HPAI.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
In June, HPAI outbreaks reached its lowest level since the beginning of the year, primarily affecting turkey farms. Chicken production decreased by 1% year-on-year in May. As the holidays approach, demand for chicken breasts remains light. Prices for wings and thighs remain stable. Heat and humid weather have some effect on bird sizes, affecting the supply of heavy broilers. Chicken exports continued to decline in May (-14%) with significant decreases to China (-73%), Taiwan (-60%), and the Philippines (-30%).
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
In late June, demand drove prices up after a downward trend since the beginning of the year. Production losses in Rio Grande do Sul impacted supply, boosting demand for live chickens in neighboring states. For farmers, profitability remains balanced. The broiler chick market has been trending upwards since late May. Industry players expect positive margins to continue in the S2 2024 due to favorable feed prices and dynamic demand, particularly in exports. In June, exports fell by 2.5% due to a decline in sales to China (-22%) and Japan (-23%).
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
In June, chicken prices continued to decline due to decreased demand and high supply. The supply of white-feathered chicken is expected to decrease in S2, which would support a price recovery. Parent stock saw a slight decline in June (-0.6%). For yellow chicken, the limited supply supported prices in June. The currently low breeder flock stock is likely to keep prices high in the S2 2024. Tensions over chicken paws supplies persisted in June due to an 83% decrease in imports from the USA (HPAI), which was not compensated by other countries.
POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS