POULTRY Poultry Market Outlook - July
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FARM INPUTS OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In July, commodity prices declined across major production regions, driven by favorable harvest prospects, particularly on the American continent. The drop in prices on the US markets has led to similar declines in European and Chinese prices, except for corn, which is affected by intense heat in these regions.
Corn
- In the United States, summer conditions have generally been favorable for corn crops. Although yield potential is somewhat uneven across the country, it is expected to reach high levels in the Midwest, where production is concentrated. As a result, prices fell significantly in July (-$13/ton compared to June), driven down by good harvest prospects and wheat prices.
- In South America markets, corn prices are also declining in response to favorable harvest prospects in North America. In Brazil, the average price was $172/ton in July.
- The outlook is less optimistic on the European continent. Crop conditions are deteriorating in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, which is supporting prices.
Soya and Soybean meal
- Like corn, soybeans are entering a critical period. For now, conditions in the United States are favorable, and harvest prospects are good. As a result, soybean meal prices continue to decline, dropping by $17/ton compared to June.
- Soybean meal prices are also losing ground in South America, under pressure from the upcoming harvests in the Northern Hemisphere and high availability for the current campaign.
- Prices in China and across Europe are following the trend in the US market, recording another decline in July. In China, soybean meal prices fell below the $500/ton mark, averaging $493,6/ton in July.
BROILER PRICE MARKET OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In July, a period typically associated with summer holidays, chicken prices decline due to seasonally lower demand. However, in Europe, prices remain stable due to reduced supply caused by the heatwave.
While growth projections remain steady, the resurgence of diseases such as HPAI and Newcastle disease could pose risks to production. After a slowdown in global trade at the beginning of the year, exports are gradually recovering, particularly with the return of Brazilian chicken to China and reduced production in certain regions.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
Despite the summer season, chicken prices continue to rise in the EU. This is due to a dynamic demand outpacing a reduced supply, keeping prices on an upward trend. It is worth noting that EU chicken production increased by 7.6% in the first half of the year, but signs of a slowdown have been observed since June, particularly in France and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, EU imports dropped by 27% in June, further exacerbating the supply shortage.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
Chicken prices continue to decline in July 2024 due to light demand and falling feed costs. According to the USDA, U.S. broiler production is projected to grow steadily through 2033, reaching 23.8 M tonnes. Despite challenges posed by (HPAI), production has maintained positive growth, supported by lower feed prices and ongoing demand. Prices are expected to continue declining until 2028 before rebounding to $0.75 per pound by 2033. Production remains concentrated in the Southeastern United States.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
In July, chicken prices fell once again due to weak demand, which continues to put downward pressure on prices. Since the outbreak of Newcastle disease in Rio Grande do Sul, more than 40 countries have temporarily banned chicken imports from this region, further driving prices down due to excess domestic supply. Although exports increased by 7% in July compared to 2023, shipments in the last week of July dropped by 23% compared to the previous week.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
Since July 18, China has suspended chicken imports from Brazil following the outbreak of Newcastle disease. As a result, chicken prices have increased in certain regions, a trend further exacerbated by the decline in the number of broiler breeders between June and July. The price increase mainly affected imported parts such as paws and wings, while chicken breast prices remained stable. Prices are expected to stabilize in August with the resumption of imports from Brazil after a 26-day suspension.
POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS