Poultry Market Outlook - January
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FARM INPUT PRICE OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
Corn
- Corn prices fell on all markets in January. This can be explained by weak demand and disappointing export sales for the US market, while supply is high.
The latest USDA report also weighed on prices. World corn production was revised upwards by 13.7 million tons, mainly due to revised production in China (+11.8 million tons) and the United States (+2.7 million tons). - Weather conditions have finally improved in Brazil, allowing prices to fall significantly on all markets. As for corn, the USDA report shows very good production levels in South America (157 million tons in Brazil and 50 million tons in Argentina).
Soybean Meals
- US ending stocks have been revised upwards by 0.9 million tons compared to December, with less soybeans being used for crushing and exports suffering from South American competition.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In January, the price of broilers remained stable, with slight variations depending on the production region, while the price of feed continues to fall. The poultry industry started the year well with a positive outlook. However, HPAI continues to put pressure on production, particularly in North America and Europe. All eyes are on Brazil and the evolution of the sanitary situation (HPAI) in the country. Export activity remains dynamic with positive global consumption.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
Chicken production experienced a 1.6% increase in 2023. This recovery, combined with a decrease in feed prices, contributed to a reduction in chicken prices. In addition, imports from non-EU countries are putting pressure on European prices. The EU Commission anticipates a modest growth of 0.9% in 2024, driven by the gradual shift to ECC production. Given the dynamic consumption, the EU poultry sector is expected to increase imports in the forthcoming months. On the industrial side, operators are returning to positive results. In Western Europe, the HPAI situation has been relatively calm this winter, in contrast to previous years. HPAI is expected to remain under control in the coming months as vaccination is accelerated.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
Chicken prices rose slightly amid dynamic demand. The approach of the Super Bowl weekend put pressure on chicken wing prices, as this sporting event records peak consumption levels. The US chicken market remains positive and offers advantages over other meats (beef, pork), which remain relatively more expensive. Despite the challenges posed by HPAI, the sector is performing well. Exports continue to grow (+5% in December) despite restrictions imposed by certain countries (China, Angola, etc.).
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
Brazilian broiler prices fell slightly in January after an upward trend since last summer. Thanks to a 6% devaluation of feed prices, farmers have maintained stable margins in recent months. In January, Brazil’s exports fell by 3% as a result of a 36% reduction in purchases by China. Apart from China, demand for Brazilian chicken remains dynamic in Asia and the Middle East.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
In January, the Chinese live chicken market was very active with strong demand in anticipation of the Chinese New Year holidays, leading to a 5% increase in broiler prices. The expected culling of breeding stock at the end of the year limited the supply of chicks and the increase in chicken prices is expected to continue in February. China’s chicken imports are expected to increase in January after a 23% decline in December.
POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS