POULTRY Poultry Market Outlook - August
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FARM INPUTS OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In August, favorable harvest prospects in the United States continued to put pressure on prices. Only European corn has resisted this general decline, supported by bad conditions in Eastern Europe. These price levels are attracting major importers such as China, which has been absent from the markets for several weeks. However, harvest pressure is currently outweighing demand, which is not sufficient to support prices.
Corn
- On the Chicago market, corn prices continue to decline, falling to $149/t in August compared to $161/t in July. Reports from the field are very optimistic, confirming the excellent yield levels expected in the Midwest states.
- In South America, the damage caused by disease last spring could impact the 2024-25 harvest. Indeed, producers are expected to be less inclined to plant corn, with the area sown predicted to decrease by 15%.
- In The European market, corn prices are low compared to the past two years but remain supported by mixed harvest prospects, rising by 3$/t compared to July. In fact, corn crops have deteriorated in Eastern Europe, leading to a downward revision of expected yields.
Soya and Soybean meal
- There was little change for soybeans in the United States compared to July. Harvest prospects remain very good and are weighing on prices. China’s return to purchasing in the second half of the month was not enough to stop the decline in prices. In Chicago, soybean meal fell to $333.6/t in August.
- In South America, soybean meal continues its decline under the pressure of the upcoming US harvest. It dropped by $8/t compared to July on the Brazilian market, reaching $449.5/t in August.
- In China and Europe, soybean meal prices once again fell significantly, following the drop in soybean prices on the US market. On Euronext, soybean meal traded at an average of $436/t in August, compared to $472/t in July. On the Chinese market, the price dropped by $16/t, averaging $477.8/t in August.
BROILER PRICE MARKET OVERVIEW – WORLDWIDE
In August, the price of chicken varies differently across regions, with a slight decline in Europe and the USA, and an increase in Brazil and China. The outlook for the poultry sector remains positive, with global chicken production expected to grow by 3%, and chicken consumption remaining strong worldwide. This is except for China, where the market is experiencing oversupply due to a decrease in demand. The growth in chicken demand is leading to an increase in global trade.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
Even though chicken prices in the EU show a slight decline, intra-EU chicken export prices have experienced a significant increase. This reflects two trends: the strong rise in consumer demand for chicken meat and a decrease in availability in the Dutch market (-10%). In the second half of 2024, despite the positive production growth outlook, prices are expected to remain high. Imports from third countries fell by 22% in August due to decreased purchases from Ukraine (-45%), Brazil (-29%), and Thailand (-10%).
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
Chicken prices continue to decline in August 2024, despite a 4% drop in production compared to August 2023. According to the USDA, demand for broilers is expected to increase by 2.1% over 2023, reaching 46 kg per person; this increase comes at the expense of other meats. After two months without Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), avian flu has returned to farms, which may impact recovery prospects. In July, chicken exports continued to decrease (-10%), with a 75% decline to China.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
In August, chicken prices increased slightly after a decline in July. This rise occurs in a context of strong demand and restricted supply in the domestic market. Brazilian chicken exports in August experienced a significant drop (-13%), affected by a decrease in shipments to Asia (-30%) and the EU (-13%), which blocked exports from certain slaughterhouses (BRF) due to sanitary issues.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
In August, chicken prices increased by 2%, linked to rising pork prices. Consumption is gradually increasing despite low chicken availability, particularly of white broilers. Chicken production continues to rise to meet the growing demand, as it is considered more dietary and less expensive. The affordability of chicken compared to pork is a significant factor in this shift. Chicken imports decreased by 22% in August and are expected to continue this trend in 2025 due to increased domestic production and ongoing sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions on imports.
POULTRY MARKET WATCH is a monthly newsletter edited by Ceva Headquarters Libourne, France) Editor-in-chief: Caroline Gremillet, Ceva. Writers: Caroline Gremillet Market Data) Mohamed Bouizidi ABCIS, Poultry Market Analysis)All figures are from public sources and when using them, you are required to acknowledge their original sources and Ceva’s reprocessing. Experts in animal sectors – ABCIS