POULTRY Poultry Market Outlook - September
Discover the latest insights with our Poultry Market Outlook this month!
Stay ahead of the curve with up-to-date information on global poultry protein market prices.
Dive into our expert analysis and discover the driving forces behind the industry’s evolution.
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FARM INPUTS PRICES – WORLDWIDE
Feed commodity prices continued to climb in September. European corn prices were supported by tighter supplies and disruptions to Ukrainian exports, while US markets strengthened amid harvest uncertainty and trade developments with China. Soyabean meal prices also rose sharply across key markets, driven by strong demand, weather concerns and firm vegetable oil prices.
Corn
- In Europe, prices continue to rise as production remains 20.7% below the five-year average. Tight domestic supplies are further exacerbated by Black Sea logistics disruptions, which are limiting Ukrainian corn imports.
- In China, prices kept stable at $365.5/t. Demand is expected to exceed domestic production by 17 Mt, abundant stocks continue to limit upward pressure on prices.
- In Chicago, Sept corn prices trended upwards to $210.6/t (+10.6% month-on-month). Mixed field reports from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour have raised doubts about the USDA’s estimates for the upcoming harvest.
- Brazilian prices remained firm at $224.7/t in September (+2.9% MoM). Production expected to drop 1.4%, demand to rise 1.5%, driven by exports and biofuels. As a result, ending stocks forecast to drop 28.4%, same as 2024 levels.
Soya and Soybean meal
- The price recovery was also strong in Europe (+11.7%), with soybean meal prices reaching their highest level since October 2024. European prices continue to track gains in the US and Brazilian markets, the EU’s main suppliers.
- In Brazil, soybean meal prices increased sharply in September, rising $41.8/t month-on-month. Driven by planting delays due to adverse weather, stronger export demand, and higher vegetable oil prices. El Niño forecast also provided additional price support.
- On the US market, soyabean meal prices rose sharply in September, increasing by $46.5/t month-on-month. Prices have thus reached their highest level since June 2024. The extension of the trade agreement between China and the United States is the main factor supporting the market.
- In China, the market followed trends observed across the Americas. Soyabean meal prices increased by 4.5% month-on-month, reaching $503.2/t.
ENERGY
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – GLOBAL
In September, broiler prices diverged across markets, rising sharply in Brazil, edging lower in the EU and US, and reaching a yearly low in China. Global production remains at record levels, prompting Rabobank to raise its 2026 growth forecast above 3.5%. While the EU and Brazil continue to expand at a healthy pace, oversupply persists in several regions, notably China (+9.5% in H1), the US, Japan and Vietnam. Feed, grain, oilseed and energy costs remain the main pressure on margins. Brazil’s EU delisting took effect on 3 September.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – EUROPE
The average EU price fell 0.3% in September despite rising costs, pressured by higher output in Eastern Europe and a 28% increase in imports over the first nine months of 2026. Ahead of its EU delisting, Brazil shipped 26,000 t to the EU in September (vs 3,900 t a year earlier), pushing nine-month exports above 300,000 t, same as a full-year volume. These stocks further weighed on prices. Thailand and Ukraine are expected to benefit from Brazil’s absence, while the first HPAI outbreaks of the 2026-27 season have been reported in Bulgaria and the UK.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – USA
US broiler prices eased slightly. The composite price reached its 2026 low in September ($2.57/kg). Downward pressure persists amid abundant supply, with slaughter up around 4% over the first eight months of 2026. The USDA keeps its Q3 and Q4 price forecasts below $2.60/kg. Demand remains sluggish, especially in quick-service restaurants, and breast meat is hit hardest. Exports, which used to act as a safety valve, are not taking off and remain below historical volumes amid strong Brazilian competition.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – BRAZIL
After several months of decline, broiler prices jumped by 13% in September, the strongest monthly rise in real terms since March 2022. This is mainly driven by strong domestic demand and tighter domestic supply. Exports rose by 3.7%, but trends vary by destination: record shipments to the EU (26 000 t) ahead of the market closure, a strong return to the Middle East, and China. In contrast, shipments declined to South Africa, South Korea, the Philippines and Mexico.
BROILER CHICKEN PRICE OVERVIEW – CHINA
A weaker China’s poultry market in September. Live bird prices down 26% from early August, farmers losing CNY 3-4 per bird, and day-old chick prices down 49% y-on-y. 4-5% higher supply, but weak demand and high frozen inventories. To date this year, exports rose 82% to 825,500 t, led by Russia, North Korea and Cambodia, and imports declined 19%. Market recovery is expected after National Day as breeder culling accelerates and lower grandparent stock imports begin to tighten supply.
